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Win rate anomaly


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TheBudgiesmuggler #1 Posted 09 September 2019 - 10:34 PM

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Please correct me if I'm wrong to go from 58.1% to 59.1% requires 1000 wins? 1% = 1000 wins to increase your win rate... yes/no? 

Ezz #2 Posted 09 September 2019 - 10:53 PM

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Depends how many battles you've had.

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Profanisaurus #3 Posted 10 September 2019 - 05:10 AM

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If you have 30000 battles you need 734 consecutive wins to move from 58.1 to 59.1.

 

Around 40900 total battles is when you would need 1000 consecutive wins.


Edited by Profanisaurus, 10 September 2019 - 05:13 AM.

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TheBudgiesmuggler #4 Posted 10 September 2019 - 12:54 PM

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View PostProfanisaurus, on 10 September 2019 - 07:10 AM, said:

If you have 30000 battles you need 734 consecutive wins to move from 58.1 to 59.1.

 

Around 40900 total battles is when you would need 1000 consecutive wins

So would number change if you got losses as in need more wins to compensate and there's the other question is it possible to get 734 wins in arow with no losses??? 



U12D13 #5 Posted 10 September 2019 - 12:59 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 12:54 PM, said:

So would number change if you got losses as in need more wins to compensate and there's the other question is it possible to get 734 wins in arow with no losses??? 

 

Yes the number changes if you have losses.

 

How % works:

(#BattlesWin / #TotalBattlesPlayed) x 100%.

*Exclude FL games/ Clan Wars/ Events battle counts.

 

Welcome to maths.

 

Edit: To answer 2nd question, go ANZ server at 4am in the morning and win against bots. Lmao. 


Edited by U12D13, 10 September 2019 - 12:59 PM.

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TheBudgiesmuggler #6 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:01 PM

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So I'm not sure if posting a players stats in regards to my questions above would qualify as "naming and shaming", so I'll ask for an explanation instead as to how a player can have a dramatic rise in win rate from 58.1% to 65.5% in 2014 battles with an overall total battle of 5464..... Wish I could jump 7.4% in 2000 battles

Profanisaurus #7 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:10 PM

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The low battle count makes it much more viable. To go from 58.0% at 2014 battles you only need 85 consecutive wins to 59.01%

 

If you platoon with two other good players and only play low tiers on AU it would be viable. You would need the awareness to bail out the moment you end up on the same cycle as players who are competitive with you playing the same tiers, particularly a platoon you end up being matched against in your platoon.

 


Edited by Profanisaurus, 10 September 2019 - 01:16 PM.

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U12D13 #8 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:15 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 01:01 PM, said:

So I'm not sure if posting a players stats in regards to my questions above would qualify as "naming and shaming", so I'll ask for an explanation instead as to how a player can have a dramatic rise in win rate from 58.1% to 65.5% in 2014 battles with an overall total battle of 5464..... Wish I could jump 7.4% in 2000 battles

 

Uh maybe:

 

- Low tier games?

- Vs Bots on ANZ?

- Luchs?

- [UNICU] clan consisting exclusively of platooning 50k battle sealclubbers that only exist up till tier 4?

- Don't play arty?


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TheBudgiesmuggler #9 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:26 PM

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View PostU12D13, on 10 September 2019 - 03:15 PM, said:

 

Uh maybe:

 

- Low tier games?

- Vs Bots on ANZ?

- Luchs?

- [UNICU] clan consisting exclusively of platooning 50k battle sealclubbers that only exist up till tier 4?

- Don't play arty?


came up against unicu players one in particular is a super unicum that's no higher than tier 4



TheBudgiesmuggler #10 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:26 PM

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View PostProfanisaurus, on 10 September 2019 - 03:10 PM, said:

The low battle count makes it much more viable. To go from 58.0% at 2014 battles you only need 85 consecutive wins to 59.01%

 

If you platoon with two other good players and only play low tiers on AU it would be viable. You would need the awareness to bail out the moment you end up on the same cycle as players who are competitive with you playing the same tiers, particularly a platoon you end up being matched against in your platoon.

 


thankyou 



Zynth #11 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:31 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 01:01 PM, said:

So I'm not sure if posting a players stats in regards to my questions above would qualify as "naming and shaming", so I'll ask for an explanation instead as to how a player can have a dramatic rise in win rate from 58.1% to 65.5% in 2014 battles with an overall total battle of 5464..... Wish I could jump 7.4% in 2000 battles

 

Its harder to jump in win rate if you have a high battle count. Don't mind if I borrow your stats for some math? If you want me to remove it later its fine as well.

 

x = Your wins

 

x/28504 * 100 = 47.5

13539.4/28504 * 100 = 47.5

 

y = Number of wins to get to 54.9

 

13539.4+y/28504+y * 100 = 54.9

0.549 = 13539.4+y/28504+y

0.549(28504+y) = 13593.4+y

15648.7+0.549y = 13593.4+y

15648.7-13593.4 = y-0.549y

2055.3 = 0.451y

y = 2055.3(2.217)

y = 4557~

 

So you approximately need to win 4557 games in a row to get a 7.4% increase.

 

Assuming of course my math is correct.

 

 

 


Edited by Zynth, 10 September 2019 - 01:35 PM.

 

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U12D13 #12 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:32 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 01:26 PM, said:


came up against unicu players one in particular is a super unicum that's no higher than tier 4

 

Most of them are actually. 

 

Was helping a friend grind up the CN TD tech tree in a plat some time back (during the CN tech tree focus) and kept running into these twats in their M2 Lights etc with full gold spam.

 

Prompted me to question the existence of these players and a clan for such activities. 


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TheBudgiesmuggler #13 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:37 PM

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So I looked at this players stats and it took him 189 battles to go from 58.1 to 59.1, the reason why I ask if you were to look at said players win rate it took 1345 battles to go from 57.3 to 58.1 but it only took him 2014 battles to go from 58.1 to 65.5, also the player in question told us he "lost his account" and had to "start over from scratch".... Now I'm not accusing him of anything just trying to understand how he it took him 1345 battles to go .8% but 2014 battles to rise 7.4%, now i understand about the platoon stuff just not sure on the maths...

TheBudgiesmuggler #14 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:40 PM

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View PostZynth, on 10 September 2019 - 03:31 PM, said:

 

Its harder to jump in win rate if you have a high battle count. Don't mind if I borrow your stats for some math? If you want me to remove it later its fine as well.

 

x = Your wins

 

x/28504 * 100 = 47.5

13539.4/28504 * 100 = 47.5

 

y = Number of wins to get to 54.9

 

13539.4+y/28504+y * 100 = 54.9

0.549 = 13539.4+y/28504+y

0.549(28504+y) = 13593.4+y

15648.7+0.549y = 13593.4+y

15648.7-13593.4 = y-0.549y

2055.3 = 0.451y

y = 2055.3(2.217)

y = 4557~

 

So you approximately need to win 4557 games in a row to get a 7.4% increase.

 

Assuming of course my math is correct.

 

 

 


might as well buy a lotto ticket there's no way and sincerely doubt any could win 4557 games in a row, my goal for the moment is to get 50% win rate. And if you were to look at my stats on tanks.gg you would see my turn around and upward climb.


Edited by TheBudgiesmuggler, 10 September 2019 - 01:44 PM.


U12D13 #15 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:46 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 01:37 PM, said:

So I looked at this players stats and it took him 189 battles to go from 58.1 to 59.1, the reason why I ask if you were to look at said players win rate it took 1345 battles to go from 57.3 to 58.1 but it only took him 2014 battles to go from 58.1 to 65.5, also the player in question told us he "lost his account" and had to "start over from scratch".... Now I'm not accusing him of anything just trying to understand how he it took him 1345 battles to go .8% but 2014 battles to rise 7.4%, now i understand about the platoon stuff just not sure on the maths...

 

So basically a re-roll account?

 

Rerolls usually have better stats, as they would have gone through the "learning and failing" stage in their original account, in which the results are omitted from these. Its like looking at an experienced player's recents stats, all while ignoring the overalls, in a way.

 

That said, the low battle count also means the data demographics are more volatile and unstable. And can be easily skewed with few battles. Results usually more stable/ consistent and can be taken as valid once a player hits the 10k battle mark or so. 


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Zynth #16 Posted 10 September 2019 - 01:47 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 01:37 PM, said:

So I looked at this players stats and it took him 189 battles to go from 58.1 to 59.1, the reason why I ask if you were to look at said players win rate it took 1345 battles to go from 57.3 to 58.1 but it only took him 2014 battles to go from 58.1 to 65.5, also the player in question told us he "lost his account" and had to "start over from scratch".... Now I'm not accusing him of anything just trying to understand how he it took him 1345 battles to go .8% but 2014 battles to rise 7.4%, now i understand about the platoon stuff just not sure on the maths...

 

I did this calculation as well but I am too lazy to type numbers and precise stuff. I just left the house and a phone keypad is terrible for these things. Also the math was left on my desk. However, I remember the rough values.

 

He approximately won 1500 of the 2000 games in order to jump that win rate. 75% win rate take or give a couple. This is doable with Profanisaurus' method.

 

View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 01:40 PM, said:


might as well buy a lotto ticket there's no way and sincerely doubt any could win 4557 games in a row, my goal for the moment is to get 50% win rate. And if you were to look at my stats on tanks.gg you would see my turn around and upward climb.

 

This is why a lot of people care more about recent win rates than overall, especially if the battle count is huge.

 

Recents only take your last 1000 battles and is easier to see improvements from there.


 

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Profanisaurus #17 Posted 10 September 2019 - 02:21 PM

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View PostTheBudgiesmuggler, on 10 September 2019 - 05:40 PM, said:


might as well buy a lotto ticket there's no way and sincerely doubt any could win 4557 games in a row, my goal for the moment is to get 50% win rate. And if you were to look at my stats on tanks.gg you would see my turn around and upward climb.

 

Camping hard in tier 3 obviously does work.


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Dieselnuts #18 Posted 10 September 2019 - 03:13 PM

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Your own recents are the only stats you should take notice of, and yours are fine. Keep doing what you're doing.

TheBudgiesmuggler #19 Posted 10 September 2019 - 04:07 PM

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View PostDieselnuts, on 10 September 2019 - 05:13 PM, said:

Your own recents are the only stats you should take notice of, and yours are fine. Keep doing what you're doing.


thanks dieselnuts

 



CardinalMite #20 Posted 11 September 2019 - 09:56 AM

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View PostProfanisaurus, on 10 September 2019 - 05:10 AM, said:

The low battle count makes it much more viable. To go from 58.0% at 2014 battles you only need 85 consecutive wins to 59.01%

 

If you platoon with two other good players and only play low tiers on AU it would be viable. You would need the awareness to bail out the moment you end up on the same cycle as players who are competitive with you playing the same tiers, particularly a platoon you end up being matched against in your platoon.

 

This is very good advice.  AU server pop means once you get a match with strong toons in it, you run the danger of meeting the same toons again and again. Awesome if they are on your team all the time, not so much if they are on opposition.

 

So... good time to switch tier if you want to have more matches where you can influence the outcome.

 

Especially if you tend to solo...


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